Indian equity benchmarks reversed yesterday's gains and slipped over half a per cent on Friday dragged by Oil & Gas, Energy and PSU stocks. Markets made a negative start and extended their losses as the trading session progressed, as traders got anxious with provisional data from the NSE showing that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold shares worth Rs 1,356.29 crore on March 14, 2024. Traders remained cautious with report by global rating agency Moody's asserting that the large number scheduled elections in various countries in 2024 increases risks of shifts in policy and policy effectiveness. It argued while elections rarely immediately affect sovereign credit ratings, they can result in credit positive or negative developments - like changes in the policymaking process and legislative composition - which according to it ultimately alter a sovereign's economic and fiscal trajectories. Markets continued to show a sluggish trend in afternoon session after commerce ministry stated that India's merchandise trade deficit widened to $18.71 billion in February from $17.49 billion in January. The trade deficit stood at $16.57 billion in February 2023. While the trade deficit widened in February, exports rose by 11.9 percent to $41.40 billion, while imports increased by 12.2 percent on a year-on basis to $60.11 billion. However, markets managed to trim some losses in late afternoon deals, taking support from the Confederation of Indian Industry's (CII) report that new unicorns are likely to add $1 trillion to the Indian economy, which would reach $7 trillion size by 2030, and add 50 million new jobs. Startup firms valued over $1 billion are categorised as unicorns. Meanwhile, the US embassy has said that in this first trilateral technology meeting, the United States, Republic of Korea, and India discussed opportunities to cooperate on semiconductor supply chains, telecommunications and digital public infrastructure, artificial intelligence, quantum, space, advanced materials, clean energy and critical minerals. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 453.85 points or 0.62% to 72,643.43 and the CNX Nifty was down by 123.30 points or 0.56% to 22,023.35.

The US markets magnified their losses and ended lower on Friday amid concerns about the outlook for interest rates ahead of the Fed's monetary policy meeting next week. While the Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, traders will look to the accompanying statement for clues about the outlook for rates. Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings have reduced optimism about the likelihood of the Fed's first rate cut coming in June. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged at its June meeting has climbed from 25 percent to 43.3 percent. On the economic data front, a report released by the Labor Department showed import prices in the U.S. increased in line with street estimates in the month of February. The Labor Department said import prices rose by 0.3 percent in February after climbing by 0.8 percent in January. The uptick matched expectations. Meanwhile, the report said export prices advanced by 0.8 percent in February following an upwardly revised 0.9 percent increase in January. Street had expected export prices to edge up by 0.2 percent compared to the 0.8 percent growth originally reported for the previous month. The Fed also released a report showing a slight increase in U.S. industrial production in the month of February, with manufacturing and mining output recovering from weather-related declines in January. The Fed said industrial production inched up by 0.1 percent in February after falling by a downwardly revised 0.5 percent in January. Street had expected industrial production to come in unchanged compared to the 0.1 percent dip originally reported for the previous month. Meanwhile, preliminary data released by the University of Michigan unexpectedly showed a slight deterioration in U.S. consumer sentiment in the month of March. The report said the consumer sentiment index edged down to 76.5 in March after falling to 76.9 in February.

Retreading from multi-month highs, crude oil futures ended lower on Friday due largely to profit taking after recent strong gains amid a forecast from the International Energy Agency that inventories will drop this year. The IEA had said earlier this week that inventories will see a fall this year due to the decision of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, collectively known as OPEC+, to extend production cuts into the second quarter. Concerns about supply disruptions due the tensions in the Middle East, and the drone attacks by Ukraine on Russian oil refineries, also contributed to the rise in oil prices in recent sessions. Benchmark crude oil futures for April delivery rose $0.22 or about 0.27% to settle at $81.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for May delivery surged by $0.19 or about 0.26% to $85.20 per barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

Indian rupee ended lower against the dollar on Friday weighed down by unabated foreign fund outflows and a negative trend in domestic equities. Traders got cautious, as the commerce ministry said that India's merchandise trade deficit widened to $18.71 billion in February from $17.49 billion in January. The trade deficit stood at $16.57 billion in February 2023. While the trade deficit widened in February, exports rose by 11.9 percent to $41.40 billion, while imports increased by 12.2 percent on a year-on basis to $60.11 billion. Traders overlooked the Confederation of Indian Industry's (CII) report that new unicorns are likely to add $1 trillion to the Indian economy, which would reach $7 trillion size by 2030, and add 50 million new jobs. Startup firms valued over $1 billion are categorised as unicorns. On the global front, the dollar was firm on Friday and set to snap a three-week losing streak as hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data stoked worries about when and by how much the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates this year. Finally, the rupee ended at 82.86 (Provisional), weaker by 2 paise from its previous close of 82.84 on Thursday.

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity as well as debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 21036.75 crore against gross selling of Rs 21150.99 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 986.41 crore with gross sales of Rs 1926.76 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 78.23 crore against gross selling of Rs 92.26 crore.

The US markets ended lower on Friday led by technology-related megacaps that have propelled this year's rally, while investors weighed the interest rate outlook ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Monday as China is scheduled to unveil a range of economic indicators, such as February's retail sales, industrial output, and urban unemployment figures. Indian markets ended lower on Friday as uncertainty over the timing in Fed rate cut resurfaced following hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation data in the US. Today, markets are likely to get negative start as key central bank decisions from the US, Japan and Australia, among others, remain on investor radar this week. There may be some cautiousness as former chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian said India's latest GDP numbers are 'absolutely mystifying' and difficult to comprehend. India's economy grew by better-than-expected 8.4 per cent in the final three months of 2023 - the fastest pace in one-and-half years. India's economy grew by better-than-expected 8.4 per cent in the final three months of 2023 - the fastest pace in one-and-half years. However, foreign fund inflows likely to aid sentiments. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net bought shares worth Rs 848.56 crore on March 15, provisional data from the NSE showed. Some support may come as latest data by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed that India's foreign exchange reserves jumped by $10.47 billion to $636.1 billion for the week ending on March 8. This is the biggest surge since the week ended July 14, 2023. Traders may take note of report that India recorded the highest monthly exports during the fiscal in February, registering an 11.9 per cent growth to $41.4 billion, mainly driven by increased shipments of engineering goods, electronic items and pharma products. The trade deficit during February worked out to $18.7 billion, up from $16.57 billion in the year-ago month, as gold imports surged significantly. Merchandise imports were valued at $60.11 billion, up 12.16 per cent compared to $53.58 per cent in February 2023. Stocks related to electrical two-wheelers will be in focus as credit rating agency ICRA expects the initial cost of an electric two-wheeler (e-2W) to increase by 10 per cent due to the reduced subsidy. This would make e-2Ws 70 per cent more expensive than petrol scooters upfront. Despite this setback, ICRA predicts e-2W penetration to reach 6-8 per cent of the overall industry by FY2025, driven by factors like lower operating costs for electric vehicles and continued government support for the EV sector. There will be some reaction oil & gas industry stocks with report that the government raised windfall tax on petroleum crude to Rs 4,900 a tonne from Rs 4,600. The new rates will be affective from March 16. The tax is levied in the form of a Special Additional Excise Duty (SAED). Edible oil industry stocks will be limelight as Solvent Extraction of India (SEA) data showed that oilmeals export rose 9 per cent year-on-year in February to nearly 5.16 lakh tonnes on higher outward shipments of soyabean meal. It said the export of oilmeals in February stood at 515,704 tonne as compared to 4,71,770 tonne in the year-ago period.

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

Nifty Top volumes

• Dr. Reddy's Laboratories has incorporated WOS namely -- Dr. Reddy's Nutraceuticals, having registered office in Hyderabad, Telangana.
• Bharti Airtel has deployed additional sites in Ujjain district to densify its network.
• Bajaj Finserv's subsidiary -- Bajaj Markets has partnered with Vridhi Home Finance, a leading NBFC to enable its users to benefit from affordable home loans and smart refinancing options.
• ITC has entered into a Share Purchase agreement with its wholly owned subsidiary, Russell Credit for acquisition of stake in International Travel House and Maharaja Heritage Resorts.